The Dangers of Point Estimation

Sorry I haven’t posted in so long. I sort of ran out of time to play Magic for a while over this past Standard. Part of that was a lack of motivation to set aside time for a format in which I wasn’t having as much fun as I did previously. Another part was a number of real-life issues cropping up in my PhD program that required more attention from me. But now I’m back as Amonkhet (AMK) is about to release.

In fact, my LGS holds a final “Top 8” tournament right before tonight’s midnight prerelease in which the top “point earners” compete for the title of “Store Champion” for the current Standard season. Somehow I’m still locked in for Top 8 in this mostly-for-fun tournament (the main prize is getting to choose where you sit for FNM games for all of next Standard and getting your name on a trophy :D) despite missing almost 5 weeks of FNMs. The way you earn points is by getting good records during our four-round FNMs each week. A 4-0 record is worth 5 points, a 3-1 record is worth 3 points, and a 2-2 record is worth 1 point.

Anyways, as I was idling at work today during my office hours I spotted a thread on Reddit discussing deck testing, and it reminded me that I’ve wanted to talk about the danger of blindly comparing win percentages between variants of a deck. Read on to learn more.

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